Happy Holidays and Happy New Year to All

XTREME WEATHER IN THE STATES

This week we are exploring extreme weather events. In the figure from climate.gov you can see the location that mostly impacted the country last year. All those were billion-dollar disasters. So far, in 2017 (as of October 6th, as per this website), there have been 15 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States [wildfires, droughts, hurricanes..].

Knowing your weather patterns matters. As the climate changes, so will the weather. Global patterns like more droughts, more heavy downpours, heat waves, etc. can be linked to extreme weather events. NOAA staff says: “The point here is that these events are causing up to billions of dollars of damage. As we see the increasing trends in these metrological and hydrological extremes, as a society we really need to think about how we are going to manage the risk, how we’re going to adapt to these changes in extremes.”

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center provides a variety of information detailing all these extreme weather events. Their yearly maps of U.S. Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters are very informative and should open our eyes about what is happening around us. Interesting times…

THE GREAT CA SHAKEOUT WEEK-DRILL ON OCTOBER 19TH-JOIN US

Millions of people worldwide will practice how to Drop, Cover, and Hold On at 10:19 a.m. on October 19 during Great ShakeOut Earthquake Drills, which began in California in 2008.

Join us that day [or another that you can] in practicing these live saving skills...

For more, click on https://www.shakeout.org/california

Landslides in CA- week 8

The largest landslide in modern U.S. history (in terms of volume) was most likely one that occurred just last year in Bingham Canyon outside of Salt Lake City, Utah on April 10, 2013. It had a slide mass of 55 million cubic meters (compared to an estimated 10 million cubic meters during the Oso, Washington event). Fortunately, no one was injured or killed during the Utah slide. 

In California, landslides impact the terrain often [see image of landslide susceptibility below]. These are generally related to precipitation patterns, in particular if there has been previous months of drought conditions. In 1982, a series of landslides near San Francisco killed 33 people and closed the Golden Gate Bridge. A total of 18,000 different landslides took place in the San Francisco Bay Area following a very heavy rain storm (data collected by aerial surveillance in the days following the event). Two fast-moving fronts carrying extremely heavy rain passed through in a 36-hour period, during which the area received an amount of rain equal to half its average annual precipitation. 

Another famous unstable area is La Conchita. A mudslide of 400,000 tons of mud in 2005 killed 10 people. This should not be surprising as the exact same place suffered another hill collapse in 1995, destroying 9 homes [see topo map below]. I that first occasion, the landslide consisted of 600,000 tons of mud and silt slid 600 feet down a cliff face.

The obvious approach is study well the soil in where we put homes and also learn from previous occurrences, understanding that areas that are unstable will continue being so  (La Conchita is not alone; Oso area had been unstable before the 2014 event).  Detailed geologic reports have been made in the past of these places, but the personnel that has the power to act have not followed up/ignored them or have not read them. Gravity always wins. We know better?

After the 2005 disaster, there was an attempt of a $50-million grading project. There were also calls for the county to buy up all the homes through eminent domain and never allow anyone to live there again. It was an idea that came and went, as was the grading project.

This is the USGS page with information on how to identify landslides and what to do if one happens.

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/landslides-kill-33-in-california

http://www.usgs.gov/blogs/features/usgs_top_story/rain-and-landslides-in-california/

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-la-conchita-20150104-story.html#page=1

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1067/508of05-1067.html

http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/~jeff/projects/la_conchita/apcg2001_article/apcg2001_article.html

VOLCANIC HAZARDS IN THE US- WEEK 5

This week Geol9 is exploring the volcanic hazards in different countries and their warning systems. I’ll be focusing on the US.

There are several ways we minimize the danger of volcanic activity (apart from the obvious of ‘getting out of the way’…(J:

·         Forecasting (earthquakes as early warnings -although in 2014 a Japanese volcano erupted without any previous seismicity (livescience article), land swelling before eruption, gas emissions, etc.)

·         Volcanic Alert Codes (USGS): the levels of alert and the aviation code levels commonly change at the same time (chart on right). A non-erupting volcano will have a green icon, and a red one indicates an imminent eruption (see USGS Alert Codes).

Today the USGS hazards map shows four U.S. volcanoes as to be above normal background (elevated unrest or eruptions; see below) or have shown activity that warranted an Information Release (for example, an earthquake swarm). Scientists from the five regional volcano observatories of the USGS Volcano Hazards Program participate in developing these plans with state and local governments of at-risk areas. If volcanic unrest or an eruption occurs, scientists from the observatories will keep state and local officials informed of potential hazards so that coordination and response plans can be updated as needed:

Bogoslof, Kilauea, and Cleveland- Alert Level=WATCH. Aviation Color Code=Orange. Note: Kilauea has been erupting for 34 years!

Mauna Loa Alert Level=ADVISORY. Aviation Color Code=Yellow.

HURRICANE HARVEY and IRMA

9/9/17 UPDATE
Current conditions in the Atlantic in the crisis map map below. Florida told to expect 15ft storm surges as the storm closes in...lrma will regain strength as it moves away from Cuba, with winds predicted of more than 110mph by the time it reaches the Florida Keys early Sunday [more here].
The latest projections from the National Hurricane Center show the storm moving at about 9mph, with winds of 125mph, still over Cuba’s northern shore. The hurricane has not yet turned north back over warmer waters....but it will...

Both coasts told to evacuate due to Irma, now a Cat 5...more info here.

Irma is now a Cat 4 in the Atlantic and it seems Florida has already declared a state of emergency. The predicted path for this hurricane below. Stay tuned.... 

Satellite images show today Harvey's impact on Texas towns. Toggle these images.

After the second landfall, flooding and rescues continue, and the news point to these updates below 

• Flooding: The heavy rain is over, but parts of Texas remain under inches of floodwater (one Texas town saw a record 51.88 inches of rain during the storm).

• Casualties: At least 37 deaths related to Hurricane Harvey and its aftermath have been reported in Texas.

• Chemical plant fire: Plumes of black smoke were reported after a fire at a flooded chemical plant in Crosby, Texas. The smoke is an irritant, officials say, and residents around the plant have been evacuated.

• Beaumont: The entire city of Beaumont, Texas — population: 118,000 — has no running water after both of its water pumps failed
• Also, lurking in the water, there is potential for

•  •Contaminants; Infectious diseases (which will get worse as the sun shines on the water); Insects (for example, fire ants can stick together in the water and form floating colonies); Wildlife, such as alligators and snakes [see below]]

The only good news I see so far is the INCREDIBLE EFFORT BY CITIZENS TO HELP EACH OTHER. THAT IS SO GREAT TO SEE. 

8/28/17 UPDATE.
SO FAR, HARVEY, NOW A TROPICAL STORM MOVING VERY SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTH, IS RESPONSIBLE FOR 99 TORNADO WARNINGS, 6 DEAD PEOPLE, DEVASTATION IN ROCKPORT, CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IN THE HOUSTON AREA [50 INCHES IN SOME AREAS PREDICTED; ENOUGH THAT THE GOVERNOR JUST ACTIVATED 3,000 FEDERAL AND STATE GUARD MEMBERS]. ... AND THIS NOT GOING TO STOP SOON..THE LATEST NEWS PUTS HARVEY BACK ONTO THE GULF AN POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN BEFORE HITTING THE SAME AREA  IN THE NEXT 120 HOURS..SEE PROJECTED PATH BELOW [CNN]
WE ARE THINKING OF ALL THE AFFECTED, WISHING THEY ARE SAFE AND THAT EVERYONE IS HELPING EACH OTHER.

LOUISIANA NEXT...

8/25/17. Harvey, currently a Category 3 hurricane, is off the coast of Texas and continues to strengthen…possibly getting close to a Cat 4….you can see the alerts here and the news here. Catastrophic rain to come…predicted up to 35 inches...they are going to get in 2 days all the rain they’d get in 1 year…Hope everyone that did not evacuate is well prepared…some areas will have no electricity for weeks and is expected that pumps will fail and extreme flooding will occur…the map with the latest rain forecast from NOAA is shown below as well as the latest GOES-16 satellite animation.

STAY TUNED...

FREE 'GOT SCIENCE' STICKERS-TRY THIS

To all Earth Warriors,

 check this survey here and get a cool free sticker-

Got Science? 

Quiz brought to you by Union of Concerned Scientists.

WEEK 13- COASTAL HAZARDS IN THE US

When I think about coastal erosion, I think about Pacifica, CA. After a declaration of a state of emergency in January 2016 after El Niño related storms, the news in February about yet another chunk of sandy cliff falling into the ocean and houses in need of abandonment was not new. A drone video of the area is clear. A lot of information can be found about how in a few years the cliff has eroded. The Army Corps of Engineers is currently studying coastal erosion fixes for it.

Two online portals have been developed as an interactive tool for any user to explore what coastal hazards are all about. Also, the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards of the USGS has very good information about coastal issues in the country.

The NOAA’s Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts (v. 2.0) website let you browse over possible scenarios of sea level rise and coast vulnerability. A great link to try! Recently the updated report on sea level rise got published as well.

Today I am going to focus on another link, the USGS Coastal Change Portal. The USGS Coastal Change Hazards Portal is a new tool that allows anyone to explore how coasts change due to: extreme storms, shoreline change, and sea level rise.

Extreme Storms: this allows ‘real-time and scenario-based predictions of storm-induced coastal change, as well as the supporting data, are provided to support management of coastal infrastructure, resources, and safety.’ For example, let’s focus on the Gulf Coast and a scenario of a hurricane (any category). Let’s see how a Cat 1 and a Cat 5 possibly looks like (with probabilities of collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation for sandy beaches along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts during a generalized hurricane landfall): see figures for both. The most probable areas should be risks areas and treated as such in an emergency.

Shoreline Change: this shows: ‘historical shoreline positions and rates of change along ocean shorelines of the United States’. Looking into the East coast now, offshore Norfolk, see figures for long-term coastal change rates, and for the short-term rates (<30 years rates of shoreline change for open-ocean shorelines of the United States ranging from 1970's to 2001).

Sea level Rise: there are two methods used to address this: a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI), and a probabilistic assessment of shoreline change. 

CVI: ‘a preliminary overview, at a National scale, of the relative susceptibility of the Nation's coast to sea-level rise through the use of CVI. This classification is based upon the following variables: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, tide range, wave height, relative sea-level rise and shoreline erosion and accretion rates. The combination of these variables and the association of these variables to each other furnish a broad overview of regions where physical changes are likely to occur due to sea-level rise’. A quick image shown here shows how much red (very high vulnerability) our California coasts possess.

Probabilities of Shoreline Change: ‘this dataset was used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network (BN) that predicts long-term shoreline change associated with sea-level rise. The BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response, which includes observations of local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphology, coastal slope, and rate of shoreline change. Using this information, the BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level rise scenarios’. See same area of CA and look at the area of south San Francisco.

As you can see this new tool will help tremendously to manage areas and to get a broad idea of what is happening on the US coasts.

Explore those links!-

WEEK 10: Extreme Weather in the U.S.

UPDATE 4/5/17-The National Weather Service issued tornado and flash-flood warnings for counties across Georgia on Wednesday afternoon as a system of storms barreled through the Southeastern United States. The storms were expected to leave nearly 60 million people at risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, thunderstorms and flooding, according to a CNN forecast.


This week we are exploring extreme weather events.

In the figure from the weather channel below you can see how today in the south there are a few flash flood and t-storms watches.In the convective map of the weatherunderground website, you can see the current dangers in parts of Texas and Louisiana.

Knowing your weather patterns matters.

As we have learned in class, a watch and a warning is a very different type of hazard. Knowing what to do in each one is very useful once the extreme weather condition affects you. There are so many types of extreme weather hazards that the mitigation efforts will be very different for each one. Being well informed is your best weapon. Both sites I posted here have twitter feeds you can follow.

Be informed. Be ready.

WEEK 8- LANDSLIDES

Landslides impact California’s terrain often.

The Californian Geological Survey released a new map in 2011 showing the susceptibility to deep-seated landslides across the whole of the state. This map does not take into consideration the occurrence of triggers of the potential landslides, which of course in this area are both intense rainfall and earthquakes.

In an area where earthquakes are common, we recently had two events happening: numerous wildfires in the area and a few big storms. In a burned area, a wildfire can make the soils repellent to water, creating a flood like flow on the ground that picks up rock and debris. In an area that has not burned, soil can become saturated. Pressure builds up underground, and soil starts moving and begins picking up mud and debris as it starts flowing downhill, creating mudflows or debris flows. 

No surprise mudslides, rockslides, and landslides occurrences are in the news often these days, cutting main traffic arteries, wreaking havoc in busy roads, or isolating populations like Big Sur. The map from Caltrans show all the problems along 61 miles of highway.

There is a USGS page with information on how to identify landslides and what to do if one happens: http://landslides.usgs.gov/learn/prepare.php

More information @

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-how-landslides-work-20170121-story.html

http://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/geologic_hazards/landslides

http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2011/05/24/new-landslide-susceptibility-map-for-california/

http://photos.santacruzsentinel.com/2017/02/22/photos-storm-damage-in-big-sur/#1

WEEK 5- VOLCANIC HAZARDS

This week Geol9 is exploring the volcanic hazards in different countries and their warning systems. I’ll be focusing on the US.

There are several ways we minimize the danger of volcanic activity (apart from the obvious of ‘getting out of the way’…(J:

·         Forecasting (earthquakes as early warnings -although in 2014 a Japanese volcano erupted without any previous seismicity (livescience article), land swelling before eruption, gas emissions, etc.)

·         Volcanic Alert Codes (USGS): the levels of alert and the aviation code levels commonly change at the same time (chart on right). A non-erupting volcano will have a green icon, and a red one indicates an imminent eruption (see USGS Alert Codes).

Today the US hazards map shows the following U.S. volcanoes as to be above normal background (elevated unrest or eruptions) or have shown activity that warranted an Information Release (for example, an earthquake swarm):

Bogoslof- Alert Level=WARNING. Aviation Color Code=Red.

Kilauea and Cleveland- Alert Level=WATCH. Aviation Color Code=Orange. Note: Kilauea has been erupting for 34 years!

Mauna Loa Alert Level=ADVISORY. Aviation Color Code=Yellow.

A great image below from Hawaii's NSP. Lots of current videos and information about the park here.

WEEK 3- E-A-R-T-H-Q-U-A-K-E-S

If I want to know something about earthquakes, the first websites I go to are: the USGS Real Time Earthquakes Website or the IRIS monitoring website.

This week we are exploring seismicity and what countries do to prevent/mitigate the hazard.

Re: the first issue, the new US map of seismicity (see image from USGS) shows the (obvious, in not pink) ring of fire portion on the West coast but also a central area in the middle of the plate. I’d like to talk a bit more about this non-obvious one. This area, called the New Madrid Zone was shaken by a M8 (!) in 1811. The reason for the activity is a very old intraplate rift placed below the area (see image from http://showme.net)... if the earth shakes in any of those areas, you cannot say you do not know why....tectonics, tectonics, tectonics....

In the last years, a few papers have come out discussing man-made quakes. USGS has great articles about those. The number of earthquakes has increased dramatically over the past few years within the central and eastern United States. Nearly 450 earthquakes magnitude 3.0 and larger occurred in the four years from 2010-2013, over 100 per year on average. USGS scientists have found that at some locations the increase in seismicity coincides with the injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells. Much of this wastewater is a byproduct of oil and gas production and is routinely disposed of by injection into wells specifically designed for this purpose.