9/30/16- HURRICANE MATTHEW - WATCHING ITS PATH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS

Still a US THREAT, HURRICANE Matthew is currently a Cat 4, being a dangerous threat to Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas over the next few days.

The cone or probable path for the next few days is still wide and the European model puts the storm a bit to the west whilst the American model puts it closer to the main land. Either way, we will all be watching..

If you want to know the main differences between the American and the European weather models, go to this link, which explains it simply.

UPDATE-10/6/16

Hurricane's death toll is least 113 people in three Caribbean countries. The overwhelming majority, 108 people, died in Haiti, said Civil Protection Service spokesman Joseph Edgard Celestin.

Up to 2 million people are on Matthew's probable path in the USA and are asked to evacuate. Some Florida residents say they're riding out the storm, defying evacuation orders, which could potentially put in danger emergency responders. 

UPDATE-10/7/16

Hurricane Matthew Lashes FL With 100 MPH Winds, 1 Dead as Nearly 1 Million Lose Power. President Obama this morning urged residents to pay attention to their local officials. While the focus of the storm is on Florida right now, he warned Georgia residents to pay attention, as the storm will likely move north. The new path is shown below. That might mean a semi-direct nit to Charleston on Sat.

9/19/16: Minimizing Volcanic Hazards: USGS Alert Codes

This week Geol9 is exploring the volcanic hazards in different countries and their warning systems. I’ll be focusing on the US.

There are several ways we minimize the danger of volcanic activity (apart from the obvious of ‘getting out of the way’…(J:

·         Forecasting (earthquakes as early warnings -although in 2014 a Japanese volcano erupted without any previous seismicity (livescience article), land swelling before eruption, gas emissions, etc.)

·         Volcanic Alert Codes (USGS): the levels of alert and the aviation code levels commonly change at the same time (chart on right). A non-erupting volcano will have a green icon, and a red one indicates an imminent eruption (see USGS Alert Codes).

Today the US hazards map shows the following U.S. volcanoes as to be above normal background (elevated unrest or eruptions) or have shown activity that warranted an Information Release (for example, an earthquake swarm):

-Cleveland, Pavlof, Mauna Loa Alert Level=ADVISORY. Aviation Color Code=Yellow.

-Kilauea Alert Level=WATCH. Aviation Color Code=Orange. Note: this one has been erupting for 33 years! (see more here).

More information @

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/news.html

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/updates.html

http://www.wired.com/2016/01/keep-an-eye-out-for-these-volcanoes-in-2016/

9/12/16- PREPARING FOR A TSUNAMI- KNOW THE RISK AREAS

This week we talk tsunamis…I recently read in EOS that these natural phenomenon also happened in ancient Mars, having found evidence of 120 m tall waves billions of years ago..

We are obviously more worried about the possible ones here…we actually have a 'Tsunami Preparedness Week', this year held between March 20-26.

A tsunami risk map of the States shows the area along the ring of fire, Hawaii and the West coast, and the US Caribbean islands as the most threatened areas.

In fact, devastating tsunamis have struck North America before and are sure to strike again.. these days the agencies are focusing on faster tsunami warnings, maybe with GPS, or maybe mobile technology, to give people more time to escape to higher ground.

If you are in an area of risk, you should be prepared. The ready.gov website has specifics on what to do.

A lot of useful information can be found online, like the website 'tsunamizone'. If you live in CA, there is an interactive map -below- where the areas of possible risk are colored in pink. Check that website out and see if you are at risk-

9/5/2016- EARTHQUAKES IN THE USA

If I want to know something about earthquakes, the first websites I go to are: the USGS Real Time Earthquakes Website or the IRIS monitoring website.

This week we are exploring natural seismicity and what countries do to prevent/mitigate this hazard.

Re: the first issue, the new US map of seismicity (see image from USGS) shows the (obvious, in pink) ring of fire portion on the West coast but also a central area in the middle of the plate. I’d like to talk a bit more about this non-obvious one. This area, called the New Madrid Zone was shaken by a M8(!) in 1811. The reason for the activity is a very old intraplate rift placed below the area.

Re: the second issue, I want to focus on the USGS ShakeAlert system, developed for the West coast using some of the existing systems. Today, the technology exists to detect earthquakes, so quickly, that an alert can reach some areas before strong shaking arrives. The purpose of an EEW (Earthquake Early Warning) system is to identify and characterize an earthquake a few seconds after it begins, calculate the likely intensity of ground shaking that will result, and deliver warnings to people and infrastructure in harm’s way. Studies of earthquake early warning methods in California have shown that the warning time would range from a few seconds to a few tens of seconds, depending on the distance to the epicenter of the earthquake. 

 A few seconds of warning might make all the difference (enough to stop transit/elevators and to drop, cover, hold on). All, watch out for thsi year's ShakeOut on October 20th.

NOTE- Of course the news of a 5.6 quake in the middle of the USA –OK- was news this week, as it was also felt in seven surrounding states. After that event, there was a shutdown of gas-linked wells. The issue of possible man-made or induced quakes once more resurfaces…for more information on those the USGS website is useful.

All for now-